I fully intended to sit out the primary season. I thought I'd be back in the swing come Aug. 6. BUT I have reason to be concerned about Brownback's chances for securing a second term.
I am worried that Brownback is about to be Kansas' version of one-termer George H.W. Bush.
Reports from the field are starting to roll in, and it's not looking good for Gov. Brownback. People on doorstops are willing to support conservative candidates, but they are very lukewarm, and often hostile, to the Governor.
I don't know if that will spell disaster on Election Day, but if I were a member of Brownback's campaign staff, I'd be stepping up my efforts.
I'm not sure what's going on with that campaign. Other than several desperate emails a day requesting that I donate, I haven't seen hide nor hair of the Brownback campaign. I've seen approximately one sign, and I've been through much of the state in the past month. I've seen maybe one commercial -- I think run by some energy PAC.
I haven't seen a whole lot of advertising or outreach from Paul Davis' campaign either. (I'm definitely not their target market, however, so I wouldn't expect to.) That said, the media is giving Davis about as much glowing press as he could possibly want. One national soccer training field and a visit from Rick Santorum isn't going to overcome all of Davis' positive free press. Some old fashioned door-to-door campaigning, a mailer and a few commercials might help.
Attention, Mark Dugan: There is a chance you could lose, and in my mind, if Brownback doesn't win by a healthy margin, that will be an embarrassment. Don't take the win for granted. This electorate is wonky.
And finally, I think there is definitely the possibility of an October surprise. I'm keeping my mouth shut for now. I am hearing some rumors, though. The rumors aren't enough to bring Brownback down, but if true, I think they would severely depress conservative turnout in the general.
When those rumors reach the ears of the Brownback campaign managers, they should take heed. Fix the problem before it becomes one.