A recent CBS/New York Times/You Gov poll shows Gov. Sam Brownback ahead of Rep. Paul Davis by 7 points.
It's a dramatic swing from polls a few weeks earlier, which suggested a Davis lead of 7 points. (Another poll, taken shortly after the CBS/NYT poll, shows a 7-point Davis lead.)
I'm no good at parsing polling numbers, but my gut feeling says this poll is closer to reality than the ones showing a big Davis lead. After all, we are in Kansas, and no matter how hard Davis tries to paint the Brownback experiment as a disaster, Davis must be hard-pressed to find any actual examples. I mean, I live in Kansas, and the job market isn't the best one I've seen in my lifetime, but it does appear to have turned a bend. And I think if individuals truly sit and consider how their friends and neighbors are faring today versus how they were faring three years ago, there's been improvement. (And anyone who wants to blame a slow recovery on Brownback rather than on Washington should take a lap.)
As hard as the Brownback campaign appears to be trying to botch the race for Governor, the political winds are at their back, and they're going to have try harder if they really hope to lose the race. (They don't. But wow on the campaigning efforts so far. They have been la-ah-ame.)
RealClearPolitics continues to call the Kansas Governor's race a tossup, and when all polls are averaged, Davis maintains a 3.7-point lead.
I'm just not buying it.