Kansas GOP Insider (wannabe): Gidget's predictions

Monday, November 3, 2014

Gidget's predictions

I don't know how anyone in a position to be taken seriously makes political predictions. The polls are too close, the Democrats cheat too much, and far too many people who harp about the candidates won't even bother going to the polls.

All that said, I'm going to make a few predictions. They are based on nothing but my gut. However it all turns out, I am very anxious to have the discussions that MUST occur when this is all over.

U.S. Senate: I think Sen. Pat Roberts squeaks this one out. Do I think he deserves to? Probably not. What a disastrous, embarrassing showing from start to finish. 

When he wins, I hope he takes it with a large grain of humility. He won't win based on Kansans' love and support. If he manages to pull off this election, it will be because the voters had limited choices, the worst president in several generations -- perhaps ever -- and the fact that every politician this side of Canada rushed in to campaign for Roberts. Off the top of my head -- the women who had 19 kids and a reality show, Pat Boone, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Bob Dole, Chris Christie, Mike Lee. Everyone I know is receiving between three and five calls per day in support of Roberts. 

Roberts will also owe part of the win to the fact that Kansans do not want a Democrat-controlled Senate. The immediate stakes are very high and very clear, even to low-information voters with I.Q.s just above vegetables.

It will be very, very close --  much closer than any race in red Kansas should be. 

Kansas Governor: This hurts to say, but I think Paul Davis wins this one. While I think the stakes are high in this race -- the national media will try to paint this as a loss due to Brownback's conservative fiscal policy -- but the stakes aren't obvious to the vast majority of voters.

It's ironic that the media will attempt to use the Brownback loss to push against fiscal conservatism since those of us on the ground in Kansas can attest that the loss is in large part due to the exact opposite. The base in Kansas is not fired up. AT ALL. There may be people just hopped up on the opportunity to go and vote for Sam and Pat, but I don't know any of them.

To a man, all of the conservative voters I know are very reluctantly going to fulfill their civic obligation, but they aren't out telling their friends how great Sam has been. If they're admitting at all that they are voting for him, they're telling their friends, well, he's better than the other guy.

Brownback is better than the other guy, but I don't see it happening for him. I think most voters recognize that if Brownback loses, a mostly-conservative Kansas Legislature will prevent the worst-case scenarios.

Davis may win by as much as four points. 

Secretary of State: Kris Kobach gets more votes than Brownback and Roberts. The most "controversial" candidate gets votes because he is a conservative, and he's unapologetic about it. That's not wishful thinking. It's reality. People respect Kobach's relentless pursuit of advancing his principles.

Derek Schmidt holds Attorney General. I don't even know who is running against him. Ken Selzer probably pulls it off in the insurance commissioners' race. This is, after all, Kansas, and no one has heard of the Anderson guy. I have heard a radio advertisement for Selzer and seen Selzer signs. I almost forgot to mention the Kansas Treasurer's race. Ron Estes wins.

Congressman Kevin Yoder is going to walk all over Kelly Kultala. I hope she didn't spend all that much money in the race. I did see a commercial alluding to Yoder's unfortunate skinny-dipping incident, so she spent some. That was money wasted.

I know there was some concern about Lynn Jenkins' race several weeks ago. Things look better for her now. (I really hate that commercial she's running about supporting women and being against rape or whatever. It's awful.) Jenkins will coast to a win.

I can't say how things are shaking out in other Congressional races. I'm mildly concerned about Congressman Tim Huelskamp. I have seen a few polls with favorable numbers for his opponent Jim Sherow. But we are talking about western Kansas, where Huelskamp's brand of conservatism is an easier sell than it would be around here.

The Kansas Legislature: Some of the people who should win, won't. And they can blame their losses, partially, on the incredible headwinds at the top of the ticket. 

I won't go down the list of every House race in Kansas, but I think some otherwise safe seats may be in for a rude awakening. Many conservatives will stay home, because they aren't happy about voting for Roberts and Brownback. This will cost some representatives down ticket. 

Johnson County Commission: I hate to say it, but I think Ed Eilert retains his chairmanship. This shouldn't happen, but it will. He's been a pretty feckless leader. But the moderates will continue to come out for Ed. He is a former Mayor of Overland Park, which gives him a name recognition advantage in the county's largest city. As much as I like Patricia Lightner and as hard as I have seen she and David Lightner working, I don't see her pulling it off. I hope I'm wrong. 

Laura McConwell wins in the first district. This race is a battle of two mayors -- McConwell is of Mission and Ron Shaffer of Prairie Village. Both are liberals. Prairie Village (pop. 22,000) has more than twice the population of Mission (9,500). But Mission is Mission. There doesn't appear to be that much difference between McConwell and Shaffer. McConwell is the more polished candidate. 

In the fourth district, Jason Osterhaus will retain his seat. He faces Curt Skoog. Skoog hasn't done much campaigning. Osterhaus hasn't been too terribly objectionable on the commission, and he's visited some doorsteps.

Regardless of how tomorrow's election shakes out, I sincerely hope there's a reckoning on the other side of Nov. 4. Republicans can't continue in our current fashion and hope to win the Presidency. 



  1. I like very much the comment about Kris Kobach. Fundamentals from politics is lost because of glitz, lack of guts, the end justifies the means, mentality.
    There are two "M's" in every political race: Money and Morals. Morals will take care of the money. Without morals, Kansas and America simply will not exist. Whose morals? Those which made the various constitutions. Civility, self-government, hard work, etc. When candidates stop fretting about winning or losing and start speaking from the bottom of the pyramid of values and morals, only then will the potentially win--if we have not yet lost the 'center'. The "M" at the top of the pyramid will then take care of itself without controlling legislation.
    "..The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world..."--Yeats

  2. Yeah I would definitely support the candidate who is for rape or whatever. Who is that?

  3. Can I get a translator? What language is Anonymous commenter (support the candidate for rape or whatever) speaking? Can someone translate? I don't speak nonsense.