Kansas GOP Insider (wannabe): Unexpected Kansas Senate Poll

Friday, April 1, 2016

Unexpected Kansas Senate Poll

Yesterday, I told you I took a phone poll that asked a lot of unexpected questions about Jerry Moran, and I linked to my own poll that asked a few of the same questions. 

This morning, my poll has exactly 100 respondents. I can do this math!! So I'll share the results. This poll was in no way scientific. The margin of error is enormous, but here's what my 100 respondents had to say in the last 8 hours:

  • If a Republican primary was held today for U.S. Senate, 64 percent were very likely to vote for Sen. Jerry Moran. Another 22 percent were likely to vote for Moran, but would like to hear about other candidates. Fourteen percent would not vote for Sen. Moran.
Here's why I'm not a pollster -- I probably should have asked whether the respondents were Republicans. Are those folks who wouldn't vote for Moran angered Republicans? Are they Democrats? No clue!

  • The vast majority of respondents have a very favorable opinion of Jerry Moran -- 57 percent. Another 26 percent said their opinion of Moran was somewhat favorable. The remaining 17 percent of respondents had a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Moran -- 9 percent somewhat unfavorable; 8 percent very unfavorable.
  • Most respondents do not want a Republican primary -- 55 percent are fully content with Moran.
  • If a Republican primary were held today between Sen. Moran, Congressman Mike Pompeo, and Dr. Milton Wolf, Moran wins handily -- if Gidget respondents are the only voters. There were 74 people who said they'd vote for Moran; 15 percent said they'd vote for Wolf and only 11 percent said they'd vote for Pompeo.
I am pretty sure I don't have to explain all the reasons my poll is flawed. 

The phone poll I received last night added all kinds of information about potential candidates Moran and Pompeo. It mentioned that Pompeo is a West Point graduate. The poll taker asked if Moran's wife should have been given a seat on the Kansas Board of Regents by Gov. Sam Brownback. It mentioned Milton Wolf exactly once. 

The poll taker asked if what I thought about Moran's statements that the Senate should hold a hearing for President Obama's Supreme Court nominee. The poll taker asked what I thought of Tim Huelskamp -- I'm sure that was to determine just how conservative I was. That was the only mention of Huelskamp, I think. The poll did not ask any questions about Lynn Jenkins or Kevin Yoder. The poll mentioned that Pompeo's conservative rating from some organization -- I'm sorry I don't remember which -- has increased since Pompeo entered Congress. The poll taker said Moran's rating has decreased. She also intoned that Moran graduated from law school, entered the Kansas Legislature and has been a politician ever since. She said Pompeo only entered politics in 2010. (I corrected her on that one. Pompeo was a committeeman and politically involved for years before he threw his hat in the ring for Congress.)

So there you have it. Pompeo (probably) commissioned a poll of (probably) likely Kansas Republican voters to test the waters on a potential run for U.S. Senate. That's what I took away from the poll. If there's another possibility, I'd be interested in hearing it!

I couldn't understand what polling organization the woman said she was with, unfortunately. 


  1. Pompeo couldn't even beat Wolf? That's gotta hurt.

  2. It's April Fools Day. Perhaps that will be Pompeo's excuse for pulling this stunt ---that proves what a jerk he is but also shows how incredibly weak he is as a statewide candidate.